Skip to main content

Twitter not reliable in predicting election results

In politics, it is said that all press is good press. But that does not necessarily apply to tweets.

In fact, it is difficult to predict the outcome of an election based on the amount of Twitter buzz a candidate gets, according to a study from the Social Science Computer Review.

The study, which focused on the 2013 German federal election, found that Twitter data was a more accurate measure of the level of interest in candidates rather than the level of support they will receive.
"Negative events, such as political scandals, as well as positively evaluated events, such as accomplishments, can (both)underlie attention for a party or candidate," said the study, published on Monday.

Yet scandals and accomplishments affect the level of support for a candidate in completely different ways.
"The analysis does not support the simple 'more tweets, more votes' formula," the study found.

For example, a video clip of a candidate's campaign gaffe broadcast on the nightly news might lead to a spike in Twitter attention, but likely not result in more overall political support, according to the study.
"The daily volume of Twitter messages referring to candidates or parties fluctuates heavily depending on the events of the day - such as televised leaders’ debates, high-profile interviews with candidates - or the coverage of political controversies and scandals," the study said.

The data also showed that Twitter users did not necessarily reflect the demographics of the population as a whole. In the United States, social media platforms like Twitter and Yik Yak are often more popular among millennial voters.
"Twitter’s user base is highly skewed and far from being representative of the population at large," the study said.
Other data showed Google might be a more reliable indicator of voter support.

Donald Trump and Bernie Sanders, respective winners of last week's Republican and Democratic New Hampshire primaries, were also the two parties' top-searched-for candidates in the state, according to a report from Bloomberg last week.

Republican and Democratic contenders are vying for their parties' nominations for the Nov. 8 election to succeed President Barack Obama.

Popular posts from this blog

Virtual reality set to transform filmmaking

Chris Milk stepped onto a TED Conference stage and took the audience on an awe-inducing trip into the future of movies. While much of the early attention on virtual reality has focused on use of the immersive technology in video games, Milk and his US startup Vrse are using it to transform storytelling and filmgoing. "We have just started to scratch the surface of the true power of virtual reality," Milk said. "It's not a video game peripheral. It connects humans to other humans in a profound way... I think virtual reality has the potential to actually change the world." He had everyone in the Vancouver audience at TED , which ended Friday, hold Google Cardboard viewers to their eyes for what was billed as the world's collective virtual reality experience. Google Cardboard gear is literally that -- cardboard

10 Smartphones with Features that You Won't Find in Any Other Phone

Here’s a list of phones which are first-of-their-kind. From feature phones to smartphones, flat screen to curved, fragile to shatterproof, mobile phones have evolved over the years. Although many industry analysts would like to call the current level of innovation reaching a stagnation point, there still are some manufacturers which have been able to surprise consumers by truly packing something different in their smartphones. We have compiled a list of phones which offer first-of-its-kind features, and they are not merely concepts. 1. Motorola X force - Shatterproof display Display today is the most vulnerable yet the most neglected element in modern smartphones. But Motorola finally paid heed to the fragile screen with the launch of the the Motorola X Force – the world’s first smartphone with a shatterproof display. The phone uses the Moto ShatterShield display technology, which is said to be an integrated system consisting of five layers designed from material...

10 years of Twitter: Key milestones in the micro-blogging site's decade-long history

Over its 10-year history, Twitter has marked numerous world events and created its own unique moments. Here are a few key milestones in Twitter history: just setting up my twttr — Jack (@jack)  March 21, 2006 March 2006:  Twitter co-founder Jack Dorsey (@jack) sent the first tweet, an automated message saying "just setting up my twttr." That same day, he sent the first live tweet, "inviting coworkers." Arrested — James Buck (@jamesbuck)  April 10, 2008 April 2008:  US university student James Buck (@jamesbuck) got off a one-word tweet "Arrested" after being taken into custody by Egyptian authorities at an anti-government protest in that country. In what is seen as an early demonstration of the power of Twitter to rally people to a cause, the resulting outcry prompted authorities to quickly restore his liberty. He proclaimed his release in a tweet reading "Free." http://twitpic.com/135xa - There's a plane in the Hudson. I'm ...